Russia → China (Pacific) corridor · live voyage risk

🇷🇺 Nakhodka → Qingdao 🇨🇳

ESPO-grade crude out of Russia’s Pacific coast into China’s Shandong refining cluster — the short sanctioned-origin Pacific haul.

As of 2026-10-11, ArcNautical scores the 967 nm Nakhodka → Qingdao corridor 55/100 — Elevated risk. Signals: Joint War Committee, ReCAAP/IMB piracy, ACLED/GDELT conflict, marine weather.

55/100
Elevated risk
82% data confidence · 11 live signals

Last computed 2026-10-11 · Risk signals from ArcNautical's voyage engine · data confidence 82% · refreshed weekly. This score moves with conditions on the lane.

Distance
967 nm
Transit (est. @ 14 kn)
~2.9 days
Chokepoints crossed
0
Live sea-state (max)
2.1 m / 29 kt
Route: 🇷🇺 Nakhodka 🇨🇳 Qingdao

Current status · last computed 2026-10-11 · weekly

Elevated risk. confirm current carrier routing and any surcharges before fixing.

Why this lane scores Elevated — the 11 signals

ArcNautical's voyage engine composites eleven independent intelligence signals along the actual sea route, then weights each by how much it is driving risk on this corridor right now. Bar width = current severity of that signal; the percentage = its share of the composite score.

Sanctions Exposure 20% of score
Transit through RU (OFAC); Transit through KP (OFAC, EU, UNSC) severity 90/100 · 2 signals
Marine Weather 20% of score
Light to moderate seas: 2.1m waves, 29kt winds severity 45/100 · 10 signals
Country Risk 14% of score
Route near 1 elevated-risk country/countries: RU severity 40/100 · 2 signals
JWC Listed Areas 10% of score
Route does not transit JWC listed areas severity 0/100
Piracy Incidents 10% of score
No piracy incidents near route severity 0/100
Conflict Events 8% of score
No conflict events near route severity 0/100
Navigational Warnings 7% of score
No active navigational warnings near route severity 0/100
Chokepoint Disruption 6% of score
Route does not transit major chokepoints severity 0/100
Natural Disasters 5% of score
No natural disaster events near route severity 0/100
AIS Disruptions 0% of score
AIS disruption monitoring unavailable — live position feed is not delivering, so this route was not screened for AIS disruptions severity 0/100
Dark Activity 0% of score
Dark activity monitoring unavailable — the detector is not reporting, so this route was not screened for dark activity and an absence of events is not evidence of calm severity 0/100

Sanctions exposure on the corridor

This route runs 18% of its distance through sanctioned waters. A leg inside a sanctioned EEZ is where AIS-gap, dark-STS and shadow-fleet activity concentrate — the geography compliance teams have to be able to defend.

Route transits 2 sanctioned EEZ(s): Russia [OFAC] (10%), North Korea [OFAC, UNSC] (8%). 2 other EEZ(s): China (12%), South Korea (2%)

Geography is only half the question. Before you fix the cargo, screen the specific vessel and its ownership chain against OFAC / EU / UN / UK lists:

Run a free vessel sanctions check →

Score your actual Nakhodka → Qingdao voyage

This profile is the corridor baseline. Run the live scorer with your vessel, load condition, speed and departure date for a voyage-specific risk read, a Monte-Carlo ETA distribution, and a downloadable report.

Open the live voyage scorer →

Freight platforms price this lane. ArcNautical tells you what could go wrong on it.

Put this corridor risk in your product

Run the same Nakhodka to Qingdao route through the Voyage Risk API playground, inspect the JSON contract, and request a test key for your integration.

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FAQ

Is the Nakhodka to Qingdao shipping route high risk?

ArcNautical scores it 55/100 — Elevated risk. The largest drivers are Sanctions Exposure, Marine Weather, Country Risk. The route crosses no listed war zones, and runs 18% of its distance through sanctioned waters.

Which chokepoints does the Nakhodka–Qingdao route cross?

. Total distance 967 nautical miles, roughly 3 days at 14 knots.

Does the Nakhodka to Qingdao route pass through sanctioned waters?

Route transits 2 sanctioned EEZ(s): Russia [OFAC] (10%), North Korea [OFAC, UNSC] (8%). 2 other EEZ(s): China (12%), South Korea (2%)